Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
