Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
